Mrs. Bolton’s 5th-grade AMP classes compared theoretical and experimental probability using candy. The students first learned how to calculate the theoretical probability of an event and how it can be used to make predictions about the likelihood of the event occurring. Next, they learned how to determine the probability based on actual trials.
This activity focused on the relationship between theoretical and experimental probabilities. As unpredictable as the real world is, the more repeated trials performed, the closer the experimental probability tends to get to the theoretical.
Students used a random assortment of colored candy (either Skittles or SweeTarts) to determine the theoretical probability of selecting each color from their bag. They then conducted repeated trials, calculating the experimental probability after 20, 50, and 100 trials to observe how it gradually approached the theoretical value.
The class discussed reasons for any discrepancies, such as chance, too few trials, or human intervention (like peeking), and explored how increasing the number of trials could help reduce the gap between experimental and theoretical probabilities.
